Inevitable Cold War - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 5 Words: 1541 Downloads: 9 Date added: 2019/04/12 Category History Essay Level High school Tags: Cold War Essay War Essay Did you like this example? Lets parse this and break down some of the reasons that the Cold War broke out. First of all, at the end of the Second World War the Soviets were the dominant land force in Europe, but this force had some severe limitations. First of all, their logistical machinery was largely supplied by the Americans: they couldnt have been nearly as successful without those Studebakers and the thousands of miles of phone lines, etc., that came in from the US. Furthermore, this army had run out of replacements in January 1945, so its combat strength could only go down. Next, there wasnt an easy way to feed these troops, because the Soviet Union was so decimated. Also, while the Soviet Air Force was good, it wasnt on the level of the US and British Air Forces. And, of course, the Soviet Union did not have the atom bomb. This means that while the Soviets were imposing and very scary to the West, they had weaknesses of which Stalin was largely aware. The Westerners understood that the Soviet military was flawed, but they also knew that the cost of fighting the Soviet Union would have been enormous. Could the Soviet Union have won a war with a determined West in 1945? Absolutely not, but victory would have taken years and several more atom bombs. Now, the Soviet Unions leadership were concerned about the Western threat. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Inevitable Cold War" essay for you Create order In fact, they had been paranoid about this threat for decades. Lets be clear, there were many times that the threat had manifested itself in violence. Stalin and his cronies made some incorrect assumptions about the Western threat, though. First of all, they lumped the Nazis in with the British and the Americans: Stalin always feared they would come to an accommodation. Secondly, the Soviet Unions leading economic theorists believed that the prime economic engine of the West was the United States. The United States produced an enormous amount of stuff, but it did so with deficit spending and its spending was devoted to war materials. With the war coming to an end the US home front was going to be flooded with returning veterans for whom there were no jobs. Furthermore, there was practically no consumption at home to sustain spending, so American industries would collapse again from lack of demand. This would open the door for communist success in the West and Stalin wanted to be ready for that. Lets add something into all of the above: the Soviet Union had a huge army that it could not feed. It couldnt afford to release its veterans back home because there was no place for them to go. The solution was to keep them in uniform occupying Eastern Europe. They looted the land under the guise of reparations and also provided a useful buffer for the Soviet Union. Now, Stalins economic assumptions were actually more or less correct. In the immediate aftermath of the War the West did suffer some bad recessions. There wasnt enough food. There certainly werent enough jobs for returning US servicemen. Communist parties in Europe made lots of headway. What Stalin did not anticipate was the way in which America responded. First of all, the US was more prepared for returning servicemen than even they realized. The GI Bill was a stroke of genius. For one thing, it gave many servicemen the opportunity to go to college. That meant that many servicemen ended up going to school instead of returning to the work force. This alone forced an expansion of the education sector which in turn drove domestic consumption. The educated folks who graduated years later provided the basis for the educated workforce the US needed. The GI Bill also allows for servicemen to get decent mortgage rates, etc. This made it easier for employed servicemen to buy a house. Now, the construction industry had been moribund for much of the Depression and only returned to life during the War. Well, the construction during the War was not for civilian use, so there was a huge pent up demand for housing. The construction industry actually expands. So, in the US there was a minor recession, but it was ameliorated in the long term by the GI Bill. The GI Bill was not intended to save the US from economic ruin: it was just a bonus. But the Marshall Plan was intended to save the West from economic ruin. People forget how much money and aid the US was already sending overseas and they focus on the Marshall Plan. This is for a very good reasons: the Marshall Plan was designed to jump start industry. It was all loan money, sure, but the US had rules on how it was to be spent. The first 40% could be spent on foreign (US) goods. This, of course, drove the US economy even further. The next 60%, though, had to be spent on local industry. This was brilliant. The US was essentially writing a check to allow Western countries to deficit spend to rebuild their industrial sectors. Now, if youre Stalin, you see postwar Europe going the way you want it to, then you begin to perceive a sudden turning of the tide against you. To Stalin this looks like a direct threat to him and the Soviet Union. Stalin knew that the Soviet Union and its satellite states were woefully behind in reconstruction. In Stalins opinion he had to pressure the West into making humiliating concessions to the Soviet Union. The idea here was to demonstrate to Europe that the Soviets were the only true power on the continent. If the US backed down from a war, then the Western countries would realize the US wont help them resist the Soviets. Thus, we get recurring Berlin Crises, etc. Of course, the US did stand up to the Soviet Union which resulted in a hardening of the Western alliance. Stalins miscalculation in this respect led to the consolidation of anti-communist sentiment. Stalin was brutal and evil, but he was not an idiot. His calculations are rational, but his conclusions were all wrong . A few things happened. One of them is George Kennan. George Kennan articulated the theory of containment. Basically, he argued that the communist states could not possibly succeed unless they had access to all of the worlds resources, otherwise they would always be forced into the market for the things they needed and that was to their disadvantage. To this end, Kennan posited, the Soviet Union needed to push worldwide revolution: communism could only be successful when it achieved world domination. Now Kennans theory is widely reviled and he himself complained how much it was misinterpreted. He was right that economically a true communist state could only succeed if it had all means of production under its control. He was wrong in assuming that that was necessarily Stalins goal. Stalin more likely wanted to neuter the major powers around him and to dominate Eurasia. In other words, Stalins motivation was defensive driven by his paranoia. In any case, Kennan argued that stopping the communist tide rested on a combination of approaches, diplomatic, cultural, economic, and military. To his consternation, most US governments interpreted Kennans plan as necessitating military involvement and commitment and ignoring the other factors he laid out. This was a dumb choice, because it meant ignoring the USs other strengths to compete wit h the Soviet Unions one strength. Kennan lays out a policy, but it catches fire for many reasons. One is that many politicians in the US are already inclined to be anti-communist. Even if theyre somewhat socialistic in their outlook they are often anti-Soviet. Plus, the sense is that giving the communists an inch anywhere would be appeasement, and that led to disaster with Hitler. During the Depression Roosevelt had a coalition that included many socialist/communist sympathizers. There was certainly an uptick in Communist Party membership. Thats not a problem, except the Comintern tried to keep fairly tight control of communist parties outside of the Soviet Union. The perception was that the Soviets controlled the foreign communist parties. At the very least the Soviet Union used the communists and their fellow travelers as a recruiting base for spies. As spies were uncovered paranoia in the United States mounted. Toss in the fact that politicians were using the spy issue to undermine their political and cultural opponents, and no one wants to be seen as soft on communism. What we have here is a ratcheting process: The Soviet Union was trying to achieve its goals by frustrating the United States. The United States felt that the Soviet Union was trying to expand its power by any means necessary. They ended up both raising the stakes, because neither one wanted to be humiliated. I think the Cold War could not have been avoided given what people knew at the time. Both sides were rational but had totally different domestic pressures and ways of looking at the world. Neither could see a way out of confrontation without backing down. I also dont believe the Cold War could have been avoided given what we know now. Only if the Soviets and the Americans gave up their lifelong preconceptions about the other, which would be incredibly unrealistic.